This course is about how to live with uncertainty. How should our beliefs be shaped by evidence about the world? How should we make decisions when our actions have risky outcomes? How can we trust other people in shared projects?

This course has five parts.

1. Thinking Clearly. How is your mind vulnerable to biases that lead you away from the truth? What skills and habits will help you have beliefs that aim at what is true and make choices that aim at what is good? Why bother with tables and numbers when it comes to real life questions?

2. Responding to Evidence. How should you change your mind as you learn new things? How can you have coherent beliefs even when you aren’t sure what is true?

3. Choosing Well. What should you do when you don’t know how things will turn out?

4. Philosophical Foundations. What justification is there for the standard rules of decision theory (from part 3), and the standard rules for degrees of belief (from part 2)? Do the standard rules sometimes give the wrong answers?

5. Working Together. Why is it hard to solve social problems together? What factors make it easier or harder to cooperate?

This is a philosophy class, but we will also use tools and ideas from psychology, math, and economics.

This class fills a quantitative reasoning general education requirement (GE-F). In some ways it will be like a math class. It involves numbers and equations, and there will be problem sets. But our main emphasis won’t be on calculation, but rather on conceptual understanding. How can we use probabilities to understand an uncertain world? What do they mean?

You will be evaluated not just on your ability to calculate correct answers, but also on your ability to think critically and write clearly.

This class does not assume you have any background in college-level math. But you will need to do some arithmetic. (For example, what is 2/3 of 3/5? What is 20% of 80?) And you will need to do some algebra. (For example, solve the equation 3p = p + 1 for p.) If you don’t remember how to do those things quickly and reliably, you will need to do some review to brush up. This might be a helpful resource:

• https://www.khanacademy.org/math

This class does not assume you have any background in philosophy. But you will need to think carefully, and you will need to write clearly and directly.

Goals

• You will think carefully and critically about what you should believe and what you should do.

• You will understand how cognitive biases can lead your beliefs away from the truth, and the habits of mind that can help compensate for them.

• You will use probabilities to understand how beliefs fit together and are supported by evidence. You will use diagrams, numbers, and symbols to determine how strong evidence for a claim is, and when a theory is more likely to be true. You will identify mistakes and confusions in real-life reasoning with probabilities.

• You will represent choices using diagrams, numbers, and symbols. You will use these tools to precisely describe difficult decisions, and to work out how to balance risks.

• You will apply probability and decision theory to make progress on controversial philosophical questions.

• You will precisely explain and evaluate philosophical arguments about what you should do and what you should believe. You will understand and explain the central mathematical ideas that these philosophical arguments rely on. You will clearly distinguish descriptive claims about what will happen from normative claims about what should happen.

• You will represent cooperation problems using diagrams, numbers, and symbols. You will use these tools to precisely describe social relationships and explain special problems facing group decision-making.

Books

We have two main textbooks for this class:

• Reason Better, by David Manley and Anna Edmonds
• Odds and Ends, by Jonathan Weisberg

Reason Better is only available through the Top Hat platform, which is described below. Odds and Ends is available for free online, here:

• https://jonathanweisberg.org/vip/

We will also use some short selections from other books and articles, which I will distribute through the course Top Hat site.

Top Hat

We will be using Top Hat (https://tophat.com) for class participation. Top Hat is an educational platform that integrates interactive features into learning materials, enhancing class engagement and comprehension.

(This will cost you some money — sorry! — but it’s less than the price of the hard copy textbooks I used to use for this course, for whatever that’s worth.)

For instructions on how to download the Top Hat app, please refer to our Student’s Getting Started Guide online.

Creating your Top Hat Account / Logging In

If you already have a Top Hat account, go to https://app.tophat.com/e/148715/ to be taken directly to our course. If you are new to Top Hat, follow the link in the email invitation you received or…

• Go to https://app.tophat.com/register/student
• Click “Search by the school” and input the name of our school
• Search for our course with the following Join Code: 148715

Important! You cannot create a Top Hat account using the mobile application. Please first sign-up (using your USC email address) and enroll into your course using a web browser.

For support, visit Top Hat Support or use the contact form here.

Meetings

If you have class conflicts with our scheduled office hours, you can email Jeff, June, or Yangming to try to find another appointment time that works.

Evaluation

See the schedule for dates and deadlines.

The grade break-down is structured to reward consistent work through the whole semester. No one component is worth a huge portion of your grade. Make sure to keep up with the reading questions, check-in quizzes, discussion activities, and problem sets. No single one of them is worth very much on its own, but all together they are worth 50% of your grade.

The later parts of this class will build on the skills you develop early on, so if you don’t keep up with the work consistently week by week, you may find yourself lost later on.

Reading questions

Purpose

• To help you keep up with the reading
• To make sure that you are reading carefully enough to understand the important ideas
• To help us track what ideas the class finds easy or difficult

Each section of the assigned reading on Top Hat has a few review questions at the end. You should answer these when you do the reading before each class. But usually I will give you a grace period to answer reading questions (or change your answers) up to the end of the week. (These deadlines will be posted on Top Hat.) In general, I will not give any extensions for reading questions beyond this grace period.

Normally, half of the credit for a reading question will be based on answering the question at all, and the other half will be based on whether you get it right.

Check-in quizzes

Purpose

• To help you keep up with core skills and central ideas all the way through the semester
• To help you get regular feedback about how well you are understanding ideas
• To help us get immediate feedback about how well we are communicating ideas

We will use Top Hat for frequent short in-class quizzes. Usually these quizzes will just be one or two questions. We will have one of them (or sometimes more than one) in almost every class. Some of these will be quizzes where you only get points for correct answers, and others will be just based on participation.

Discussion activities

Purpose

• To practice skills, understand ideas more deeply, and have interesting discussions

Discussion section is a required part of this class. Be present, be prepared, and be on time. Ask questions, contribute to discussions, and participate in activities. Be helpful and respectful to others.

Problem sets

Purpose

• To practice core skills
• To get regular feedback on your progress with core skills

Problem sets will include calculations, drawing diagrams, as well as short written reflections about philosophical questions. There will be five problem sets, spread out through the semester (see the class schedule).

Problem sets will be due in class at the beginning of class on the day of the deadline (8:30am Pacific time). If you do not turn in a problem set at the beginning of class, you will use a late day (see the Late Policies below).

Midterm

There will be one in-class midterm (see the class schedule).

Purpose

• To help you consolidate your understanding so far

• To evaluate your knowledge and understanding of the main ideas

• To evaluate your ability to apply core skills

Final Exam

There will be a comprehensive in-class final exam.

Purpose

• To give you an opportunity to reflect on what you have learned through the whole semester, and put all the pieces together.

• To evaluate your understanding of ideas and mastery of skills from the entire class, and your ability to apply them.

Late Policies

Problem Sets

Life is messy, and sometimes you just can’t reasonably get homework done on time. Instead of dealing with all of these problems case by case, everyone gets ten “late days” to use on any problem set, no questions asked.

You can split up your late days however you want: for example, you can spend all your late days on one assignment and turn it in ten days late, or you can turn in every problem set two days late. (You can’t use just half a late day, though: if the assignment is a few hours late, that uses up a whole late day. Days when we don’t have class meetings still count, including weekends and holidays.)

There is no grade penalty for spending a late day. But after you have spent all of your late days, you will not get any more credit for late work. So don’t spend all your late days on the first assignment! Save them for real emergencies when you need them.

Late work can be turned into Jeff’s mailbox in the main philosophy office (MHP 113). Make sure to write the date and time that you turn it in at the top.

Reading Quizzes, Check-in Quizzes, and Discussion Activities

Reading questions, check-in quizzes, and discussion activities cannot be made up or turned in late. This is because these assignments are difficult to fairly administer at alternative times, and each particular one of them is worth a very small fraction of your overall grade.

Schedule

The following schedule is provisional. I will make adjustments through the semester, which may affect assignment deadlines or the midterm date. Watch for updates.

RB is Reason Better (available through Top Hat). O&E is Odds and Ends (available free online). Other readings besides these will also be distributed through Top Hat.

Equality

This classroom is a safe space. Discrimination on the basis of race, gender, sexuality, religion, age, or other identities is unacceptable. If at any time while at USC you feel you have experienced harassment or discrimination, you can file a complaint: see http://equity.usc.edu for more information. You are also welcome to bring the complaint to any faculty or staff member at USC.

Academic Integrity

The University of Southern California is foremost a learning community committed to fostering successful scholars and researchers dedicated to the pursuit of knowledge and the transmission of ideas. Academic misconduct is contrary to this fundamental mission and includes any act of dishonesty in the submission of academic work (either in draft or final form), as well as cheating, plagiarism, fabrication (e.g., falsifying data), knowingly assisting others in acts of academic dishonesty, and any act that gains or is intended to gain an unfair academic advantage. Students are expected to uphold the highest standards of academic integrity in all coursework.

This course follows the expectations for academic integrity as stated in the USC Student Handbook. All students are expected to submit assignments that are original work and prepared specifically for the course/section in this academic term. Students may not submit work written by others or “recycle” work prepared for other courses without obtaining written permission from the instructor(s). Students suspected of academic misconduct will be reported to the Office of Academic Integrity.

Academic dishonesty has a far-reaching impact and is considered a serious offense against the university. Violations will result in a grade penalty, such as a failing grade on the assignment or in the course, and disciplinary action from the university, such as suspension or expulsion.

For more information about academic integrity see the Student Handbook, the Office of Academic Integrity’s website, and university policies on Research and Scholarship Misconduct.

Please ask your instructor if you are unsure what constitutes unauthorized assistance on an exam or assignment or what information requires citation and/or attribution.

AI Policy

You can use AI to help you study, but never to do your homework for you.

Here is a good rule of thumb: you may use generative AI (such as ChatGPT, Copilot, Claude, Gemini, Grammarly, …) in the same way you might use a classmate or a tutor — to ask questions, to check your understanding, or to talk through ideas. You may not use AI to generate problem set answers, write up solutions or reflections, answer reading questions, or otherwise do the work the assignments are meant to teach you. That will be considered plagiarism in the same way as if you had turned in another person’s work as your own.

This restriction is for your benefit. The point of the class assignments is to practice and develop the skills yourself; if you outsource the work, you won’t learn the skills, you won’t do well on the exams, and you won’t gain much of value from this class.

Also, remember that generative AI often hallucinates, makes errors in reasoning, and even fails at simple arithmetic. Relying on it to produce answers is risky as well as inappropriate.

If you are unsure whether a particular use of AI is acceptable, ask me in advance.

Support Systems

Students and Disability Accommodations. USC welcomes students with disabilities into all of the University’s educational programs. The Office of Student Accessibility Services (OSAS) is responsible for the determination of appropriate accommodations for students who encounter disability-related barriers. Once a student has completed the OSAS process (registration, initial appointment, and submitted documentation) and accommodations are determined to be reasonable and appropriate, a Letter of Accommodation (LOA) will be available to generate for each course. The LOA must be given to each course instructor by the student and followed up with a discussion. This should be done as early in the semester as possible as accommodations are not retroactive. More information can be found at <osas.usc.edu>. You may contact OSAS at (213) 740-0776 or via email at osasfrontdesk@usc.edu.

Student Financial Aid and Satisfactory Academic Progress. To be eligible for certain kinds of financial aid, students are required to maintain Satisfactory Academic Progress (SAP) toward their degree objectives. Visit the Financial Aid Office webpage for undergraduate- and graduate-level SAP eligibility requirements and the appeals process.

Counseling and Mental Health — (213) 740-9355 — 24/7 on call
Free and confidential mental health treatment for students, including short-term psychotherapy, group counseling, stress fitness workshops, and crisis intervention.

988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline - 988 for both calls and text messages – 24/7 on call
The 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline (formerly known as the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline) provides free and confidential emotional support to people in suicidal crisis or emotional distress 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, across the United States. The Lifeline consists of a national network of over 200 local crisis centers, combining custom local care and resources with national standards and best practices. The new, shorter phone number makes it easier for people to remember and access mental health crisis services (though the previous 1 (800) 273-8255 number will continue to function indefinitely) and represents a continued commitment to those in crisis.

CARE-SC: Confidential Advocacy, Resources, and Education Support Center — (213) 740-9355(WELL) – 24/7/365 on call
Confidential advocates, prevention educators, and professional counseling teams work to promote a universal culture of consent, as well as prevent and respond to sexual assault, intimate partner violence, stalking, or other relationship harm. Services available to all USC students at no cost.

Office of Civil Rights Compliance — (213) 740-5086
Information about how to get help or help someone affected by harassment, discrimination, retaliation on the basis of a protected characteristic, rights of protected classes, reporting options, and additional resources for students, faculty, staff, visitors, and applicants.

USC Report & Response — (213) 740-2500
The USC Report & Response website is the university’s central reporting portal for concerns arising in the academic space or workplace. All concerns will be assessed and referred to the appropriate university office for resolution. Any questions about USC Report & Response or reporting, in general, can be referred to the Office of Professionalism and Ethics at ope@usc.edu.

The Office of Student Accessibility Services (OSAS) — (213) 740-0776
OSAS ensures equal access for students with disabilities through providing academic accommodations and auxiliary aids in accordance with federal laws and university policy.

USC Campus Support and Intervention — (213) 740-0411
Focuses on student success by assisting students in navigating and resolving complex issues through problem solving, presenting options, and connecting to resources.

USC Emergency Information
Latest updates regarding safety, including ways in which instruction will be continued if an officially declared emergency makes travel to campus infeasible.

USC Department of Public Safety
For 24 hour emergency assistance or to report a crime: UPC: (213) 740-4321, HSC: (323)-442-1000
For 24 hour non-emergency assistance or information: UPC: (213) 740-6000, HSC: (323)-442-1200

Office of the Ombuds - (213) 821-9556 (UPC) / (323) 442-0382 (HSC)
A safe and confidential place to share your USC-related issues with a University Ombuds who will work with you to explore options or paths to manage your concern.

Occupational Therapy Faculty Practice - (323) 442-2850 or otfp@med.usc.edu
Confidential Lifestyle Redesign services for USC students to support health promoting habits and routines that enhance quality of life and academic performance.